江苏沿海地区化工事故时空变化分析与对策研究

统计汇总了2006—2009年江苏沿海地区发生的化工事故,分析事故发生的时间趋势、空间分布、事故原因、死亡人数以及类型等特点。结果表明:事故发生频次稳定,增长趋势不明显。71%的事故发生于园区内,29%的事故发生在分散企业。连云港事故主要发生于沿海化工区密集带,盐城事故主要分布于沿海化工区域,少数发生在内陆地区,南通事故发生地点较为分散。总体来看,江苏沿海地区化工事故具有数量多,影响广,造成的环境经济损失较大的特点。     

Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity,Flow Regime,and Scale1

Opperman, Jeffrey J., Ryan Luster, Bruce A. McKenney, Michael Roberts, and Amanda Wrona Meadows, 2010. Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity, Flow Regime, and Scale. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):211-226. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00426.x Abstract: This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity between the river and the floodplain, (2) a variable hydrograph that reflects seasonal precipitation patterns and retains a range of both high and low flow events, and (3) sufficient spatial scale to encompass dynamic processes and for floodplain benefits to accrue to a meaningful level. Although floodplains support high levels of biodiversity and some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, they are also among the most converted and threatened ecosystems and therefore have recently become the focus of conservation and restoration programs across the United States and globally. These efforts seek to conserve or restore complex, highly variable ecosystems and often must simultaneously address both land and water management. Thus, such efforts must overcome considerable scientific, technical, and socioeconomic challenges. In addition to proposing a scientific conceptual model, this paper also includes three case studies that illustrate methods for addressing these technical and socioeconomic challenges within projects that seek to promote ecologically functional floodplains through river-floodplain reconnection and/or restoration of key components of hydrological variability.     

基于突变理论的近海船舶航行安全评价

基于船舶航行安全评价在海事预防与管理中的重要性,从"人-机-环境-管理"指标体系出发,结合近海航行船舶的特点及影响安全的因素,建立一个定量指标为主、定性指标为辅的4级安全评价体系;结合突变级数法和模糊综合评价对近海船舶航行安全进行评价和预测;最后以秦皇岛海域的5艘航行船舶为例进行实例演示。结果表明:用突变级数法对近海船舶航行进行安全评价得出的结论与实际情况基本吻合。应用突变级数法对近海船舶的安全状况进行实时监控、评价和预测,有助于海上运输的安全管理。     

生物法-人工湿地组合工艺处理小城镇混合污水研究

为适应小城镇污水处理高效、低耗、管理简单的要求,开展了生物法(水解酸化/生物接触氧化)-人工湿地组合工艺(A/BCO-CW)处理小城镇片区混合污水的研究。结果表明,A/BCO系统在停留时间为3～6 h条件下,对悬浮物和有机物有高的去除效率,COD、BOD5和TSS去除率分别达到63.1%、67.7%和66.2%,避免了人工湿地堵塞和提高处理效率,减少了所需湿地面积44%。全年运行结果表明,在0.30～0.59 m/d水力负荷率下,垂直流-表面流-水平潜流人工湿地组合系统对COD、BOD5和TSS平均去除负荷达9.4、5.1和7.2 g/(m2.d)(42%、71.2%和85.2%);COD、BOD5去除速率常数为74.6±12.1 m/y、166±30.5 m/y,这些数值均处于文献中k值范围的高量程内。A/BCO-人工湿地系统对COD、BOD5和TSS具有好的处理效果,出水水质能够稳定达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002)的IV类水标准,2种处理方法有效组合起来,所开发的低成本、高效率、可持续运行的城镇废水处理组合系统,将会在实际应用尤其是高有机负荷污水处理中发挥良好效用。     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

我国海岸带灾害成因分析及减灾对策

近年来海岸带灾害越来越成为制约海岸带－我国最重要的经济带社会、经济和环境可持续发展的重要因素。本文在全球变化和人类活动影响的背景下，分析探讨了我国海岸带灾害的基本成因，并提出了相应的概念性减灾对策框架，海岸带生态环境的脆弱性，全球变化（相对海平面变化、气候异常）和人类活动是导致我国海岸带灾害的3个主要方面。据此，认为减灾的关键在于合理规范人类行为，保护和改善本已十分脆弱的海岸带生态环境，使人与自然界和谐相处；对于全球变化诱发的灾害，则力求基于科学认识与预测，在海岸带开发中合理规划建设，做到未雨绸缪，实现海岸带社会经济可持续发展。     

江苏沿海城镇化与生态环境协调发展量化分析

城镇化与生态环境之间存在着客观的动态耦合关系,以江苏沿海三市(南通、盐城、连云港)2000-2009年统计数据为基础,分别从人口、经济、空间、社会城镇化和生态环境压力、状态、响应等层面构建了城镇化与生态环境协调发展的综合评价指标体系,利用协调发展模型对其演化趋势进行了量化分析。结果表明:①城镇化指数逐步提高,呈线性增长趋势,进入城镇化快速发展时期;②生态环境指数具有不同的变化特征,表现为波动上升趋势,生态环境质量不断得到改善;③城镇化与生态环境协调发展度指数表现出多样化的等级类型,当城镇化水平发展到一定阶段,生态环境压力也随之增大,同时人们的环境保护意识与逐步增强,两者之间的交互作用逐步走向适应与协调。     

江苏盐城滩涂土壤中多环芳烃的测定

文中采用江苏盐城滩涂响水到滨海一带的滩涂土壤样品,利用索氏提取法提取、硅胶柱净化、高效液相色谱法分离检测土壤样品中的多环芳烃(PAHs),并用优化洗脱程序对滩涂土壤中PAHs的含量进行了测定。结果表明:11个滩涂土壤样品中检出萘、苊烯、菲、蒽、荧蒽、芘六种PAHs,其含量较低,说明该段滩涂土壤尚未受到多环芳烃的污染。     

芦苇和香蒲在人工湿地城市污泥处理系统中的应用

用有机玻璃材料做成模拟人工湿地,分别种植芦苇和香蒲考察2种模拟植物湿地对城市污泥干化和稳定化、污泥中营养元素和重金属去除效果,并和空白湿地对比。实验污泥取自当地污水厂二沉池,污水处理采用厌氧池加氧化沟工艺。模拟人工湿地进泥负荷为0.72 kg TS/(m2.d),进泥中TS平均含量为5.58 g/L,pH为6.80。实验期为1年,采用间歇式进泥,渗滤液月采集测样一次,湿地剩余污泥2月1次。实验结果受天气和气候影响较大,处理效果夏季好于冬季,出水水质和剩余污泥的干化及稳定效果芦苇湿地好于香蒲湿地。剩余污泥中各种重金属含量低于污泥农用标准中各重金属离子浓度要求。结果表明,人工湿地植物净化系统对城市污泥有较好的脱水和稳定化效果。     

气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响

气候变化影响着湿地生态系统。在全球气候变化的背景下，洪湖湿地区域气候也发生了明显变化。通过对洪湖周边4个站点1961~2004年的气象数据分析，从气象学和生态学的角度探讨了气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响。结果表明20世纪60年代以来，洪湖湿地区域气温有显著升高趋势，气温增加倾向率为0264℃/10 a；年降水量有微弱升高趋势，增加倾向率为49964 mm/10 a；降水量夏季和冬季有升高趋势，但是春季和秋季有减弱趋势。气候要素的综合变化使洪湖湿地区域湿润系数具有降低趋势。气候变化造成洪湖湿地面积萎缩、水位降低，同时造成了生物多样性降低和生物入侵，降水格局的变化改变了湿地水文状况，加剧了湿地的生态不稳定性。研究结果为湿地恢复重建和本区湿地生态安全提供了科学依据.